July 25 Energy Storage Update:

How Long Could Australia’s $2.3B Battery Rebate Last?

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Following our July 19 post about the Federal Government’s $2.3 billion home battery rebate program, interest has surged and industry chatter is everywhere. Here’s the latest snapshot based on this week’s installation and STC submission data.

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📊 STC Activity & Installation Volumes

• July 19: 1.44 million STCs lodged, covering 8,918 battery installations.

• Some asked whether July could hit 3 million STCs — early signs now confirm it’s likely.

• By July 25: Submissions have climbed to 2.248 million STCs across 13,877 systems. With 4 days to go, the 3 million milestone is well within reach.

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⚡ Average System Sizes & Supply Constraints

• Current average: 162 STCs per install → roughly 20kWh systems.

• Limiting factors are battery stock levels and inverter compatibility, not consumer demand.

• August outlook: As new shipments arrive, average installs are expected to rise to 25kWh+.

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📅 Projected Life of the $2.3B Scheme

• If 25kWh remains the norm, the rebate could cover around 236,000 systems.

• Manufacturer forecasts point to 5M+ STCs claimed in August–September.

• At the fixed $40/STC rate and a total pool of 57.5 million STCs, funding could be fully used by April 2026 — possibly sooner if demand accelerates.

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Bottom line: This isn’t a permanent program. The clock is ticking.

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🧰 Installer Capacity

• Australia currently has enough licensed battery installers to meet demand — supply, not labour, is the pinch point.

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🔄 Will Prices Just Keep Dropping?

While solar panel prices declined over years, the battery rebate works differently:

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Solar STC Scheme

• Ongoing program.

• STCs are traded by electricity retailers under carbon offset rules.

• No fixed expiry.

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Battery Rebate Scheme

• Direct federal funding — $2.3B capped budget.

• When the pool is spent, the program ends — no extensions.

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✅ Key Insights

• Generous rebates are available now — but limited.

• July alone is set to hit 3M STCs.

• Current trends suggest the scheme could end by early 2026 — or sooner with strong uptake.

• Installing larger systems (30–50kWh) now maximises your rebate before supply balances and funding runs out.

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If you’ve been holding off, the numbers make it clear

 

- act now. Once the rebate fund is exhausted, it’s gone for good.